Home » 2023 Valspar Championship picks, predictions, odds, field: Golf insider fading Matt Fitzpatrick at Innisbrook

2023 Valspar Championship picks, predictions, odds, field: Golf insider fading Matt Fitzpatrick at Innisbrook

The intense battle for world No. 1 goes on the back burner this week on the PGA Tour, with a slightly weakened field set to tee off at the 2023 Valspar Championship. The run of designated events has ended, but the final leg of the PGA Tour Florida Swing still has some star power. Reigning major champions Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick headline the Valspar Championship field set to tee off Thursday on Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course. Sam Burns has won the tournament in Palm Harbor the past two years, beating Davis Riley in a thrilling playoff last year. He can become the first golfer since 2011 to win the same event three straight times. Former FedEx Cup champions Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose, and the likes of Keegan Bradley, Brian Harman and Tommy Fleetwood also are scheduled to compete.

Thomas is the 10-1 favorite in the latest 2023 Valspar Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Spieth (12-1) and Burns (15-1) are next in line, followed by Fitzpatrick (18-1) and Bradley (22-1), in the latest 2023 Valspar Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any 2023 Valspar Championship picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season. The expert is up almost 17 units this season, meaning a haul of nearly $1,700 for $100 bettors. He is having a profitable season in both outright picks and head-to-head matchups.

McDonald nailed the Farmers Insurance Open, backing Homa (25-1) as his top choice. The expert also just missed a massive 130-1 score at the Sony Open when Hayden Buckley finished as runner-up. He hit another 25-1 shot at the Houston Open, taking Tony Finau to win. The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outrights, including a monster 250-1 payout on Hudson Swafford at The American Express. Anyone who follows McDonald’s advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Valspar Championship field and has locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McDonald’s PGA picks and analysis.  

Top 2023 Valspar Championship expert picks

One of the most shocking picks from McDonald: He is fading Fitzpatrick, even though he is clearly one of the top names in this field. The 2022 U.S. Open champion has one top-10 finish in seven events this season. While he tied for fifth at 14 under par last year at Innisbrook, he “doesn’t look like that player anymore,” McDonald says. The 28-year-old’s approach game has been off, and that won’t do him any favors on the tough Copperhead Course. He ranks 168th in strokes gained approach and 177th in proximity to the hole, so McDonald doesn’t have confidence in him.

On the other hand, McDonald likes what he sees from Bradley, who has finished in the top 20 in three of his past five tournaments. He did miss the cut last week, but McDonald isn’t too concerned. He looked strong in the first round before a 78 Friday sent him packing. Bradley has four top-10 finishes this season, including a Zozo Championship victory in October. The 36-year-old was the runner-up at the 2021 Valspar and ranks 30th on tour in strokes gained total. He also ranks 30th in scoring average, so he should be able to go low enough to contend. See who he is backing at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Valspar Championship golf picks

McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Valspar Championship and has tabbed a couple of longshots, including one who comes in at massive odds around 150-1. This golfer is “quietly playing some great golf,” the expert says, and he put in a strong putting performance at Innisbrook last year. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Valspar Championship golfers should you target or avoid? And which golfer in the Valspar Championship 2023 field could bring a monster payday of around 150-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top prop picks for Valspar Championship 2023, all from the expert who is up nearly $1,900 on his PGA Tour picks this season.

2023 Valspar Championship odds, field, top contenders

See McDonald’s picks, best bets and predictions here.

Justin Thomas +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Sam Burns +1500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800
Keegan Bradley +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2400
Justin Rose +2700
Adam Hadwin +2800
Denny McCarthy +3000
Davis Riley +3100
Brian Harman +3100
Justin Suh +3700
Wyndham Clark +4000
Ben Griffin +4100
Brandon Wu +4100
Gary Woodland +4100
J.T. Poston +4200
Maverick Mcnealy +4800
Byeong Hun An +5000
Jhonattan Vegas +5000
Aaron Rai +5000
Nate Lashley +5000
Victor Perez +5000
K.H. Lee +5000
Taylor Moore +5000
Joel Dahmen +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Stephan Jaeger +6500
Ben Taylor +6500
Trey Mullinax +6500
Luke List +6500
Ryan Gerard +6500
Ben Martin +6500
Tyler Duncan +6500
Beau Hossler +6500
Nick Taylor +6500
Robby Shelton +6500
Joseph Bramlett +8000
Matthew NeSmith +8000
Webb Simpson +8000
Garrick Higgo +8000
Lee Hodges +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Ludvig Aberg +8000
S.H. Kim +9500
Charley Hoffman +9500
Eric Cole +9500
Dylan Frittelli +10000
Pierceson Coody +10000
David Lingmerth +10000
Troy Merritt +10000
Kramer Hickok +11000
Erik Van Rooyen +11000
Russell Knox +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Adam Schenk +11000
Cameron Champ +11000
David Lipsky +11000
Greyson Sigg +11000
Nick Hardy +12000
Sam Ryder +12000
Carson Young +12000
Chad Ramey +12000
Chesson Hadley +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Sam Stevens +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Kevin Kisner +14000
MJ Daffue +14000
Nico Echavarria +15000
Harry Higgs +16000
Michael Kim +16000
Adam Long +16000
Kevin Tway +17000
Matt Wallace +17000
Martin Laird +17000
Peter Malnati +17000
Harry Hall +17000
Carl Yuan +17000
Luke Donald +19000
Dylan Wu +19000
Patton Kizzire +19000
Matthias Schwab +21000
Vincent Norrman +21000
Ryan Moore +21000
Kevin Streelman +21000
Erik Barnes +21000
Ryan Armour +21000
Austin Cook +21000
Doug Ghim +21000
Brian Stuard +21000
Augusto Nunez +21000