It’s been an incredible week of tennis in Buenos Aires and we are onto the quarterfinals.
I’ve found betting value on two of Friday’s quarterfinal matches, including Norrie vs Etcheverry and Alcaraz vs Lajovic.
Read on Buenos Aires odds and picks.
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ATP Buenos Aires Odds, Picks
Cameron Norrie (-196) vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (+168)
11:30 a.m. ET
Cameron Norrie survived a tough test in the first round, defeating Facundo Diaz Acosta 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6). Norrie was down 4-6, 3-5* 0-15 and showcased excellent mental toughness to come back, aided by Diaz Acosta breaking down physically.
Despite winning just 48% of his second serves, the Brit won 70% of his first serves, although he was broken four times. But, Norrie was able to break four times himself.
Norrie is now 11-2 on the year, including a 3-0 record on clay. It’s clear that Norrie isn’t totally comfortable on the dirt, however, as he has a lower career-winning percentage compared to hard courts and has played 290 fewer matches on clay (86) compared to hard (376).
H has a heavy, lefty game that he uses to dictate play from the baseline, but his forehand can sit up at times and his flat backhand doesn’t adapt well to clay.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry beat Roberto Carballes Baena 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 to reach the quarterfinals. Etcheverry won 78% of his first serves, 59% of his second serves and was only broken once. He also won 55% of the points on Carballes Baena’s second serve, and he broke four times.
Etcheverry has compiled a 5-3 record on the season, including a 2-1 record on the dirt. Historically, the Argentine is a strong clay-court player, with a 250-122 mark on clay for his career. Etcheverry’s game is based around his powerful, heavy forehand. His backhand has also become more solid in recent years.
The Argentine is much more experienced and comfortable on clay compared to Norrie. Etcheverry’s forehand has more bite than Norrie’s, and he will use this wing to dictate play.
Norrie’s backhand is the weakest shot on the court, considering the surface. Etcheverry is very precise in the location of his forehands and he will be able to exploit this wing.
Finally, Etcheverry is fitter and plays with more margin than Diaz Acosta, so Norrie won’t be able to rely on physical break downs or many terrible unforced errors in this one.
Pick: Etcheverry +3.5 games (-136 via FanDuel)
Carlos Alcaraz (-650) vs Dusan Lajovic (+480)
4:30 p.m. ET
Carlos Alcaraz’s return from his leg ailment was a success, as the Spaniard defeated Laslo Djere 6-2, 4-6, 6-2. Alcaraz won 71% of his first serves and was only broken once. On return, Alcaraz won 35% of his first-serve returns and broke on four occasions.
He looked a little rusty against Djere, a bit impatient and “un-clutch” (0/8 on break points in the second set), but it was his first match back and he seemed to fully find his footing in the third. Alcaraz has been a strong clay-court player, going 99-28 on the dirt for his career.
Alcaraz has a huge, well-placed serve, a heavy forehand that explodes off his racquet and a strong backhand. His movement is incredible and his variety is world class. Alcaraz’s touch shots are particularly impressive.
Dusan Lajovic dominated Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the round of 16, beating the Argentine 6-3, 6-1. Lajovic won 67% of his service points and wasn’t broken all match. He was all over Ugo Carabelli’s weaker serve, winning 52% of his first-serve returns and breaking four times. It was incredible to watch Lajovic dominate the baseline against the underpowered Argentine.
Lajovic had to qualify for Buenos Aires and has dropped just one set all week. He is now 5-1 on clay for the year and 355-219 as a professional. Lajovic doesn’t have overwhelming power, but his variety is excellent. He spreads the ball around the court, keeping his opponents moving and allowing him to frequently win the court-positioning battle.
While Lajovic was able to dictate play against Ugo Carabelli, that will not be the case against Alcaraz. Whether it be on serve or from the ground, with the rust off the Spaniard will be in charge.
Alcaraz will use his forehand to push Lajovic around and will win the battle of court positioning. Lajovic’s variety will also be less effective because, not only is Alcaraz as fast as Ugo Carabelli, but he’s more capable of playing offense once reaching the ball.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Alcaraz’s overall Elo is 357.8 points higher than Lajovic’s and his clay-court Elo is 208.6 points higher than Lajovic’s.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)
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