Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Odds
Brighton & Hove Albion Odds
Crystal Palace Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115 / -115)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(+105 / -135)|
|Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Brighton continue their quest for European football when they host Crystal Palace in the A23 derby.
The Seagulls are coming off a 2-2 draw with Leeds, where they blew two different leads in the match. The single point was a blow to their chances at pushing for a place inside the top four, as they have three games in hand over Tottenham, two games in hand over Liverpool and one game in hand over Newcastle.
Brighton absolutely need to get all three points in this match if they want to compete for the final Champions League spot with those three clubs.
Crystal Palace are going through a bit of a rut at the moment after their 1-0 loss at home on Saturday to Manchester City. I say that because the Eagles haven’t scored in their last three matches and quite frankly didn’t create enough chances to deserve to score. They lucked their way into a 1-1 draw with Brighton in the previous meeting, but it’s going to be much more difficult this time around at the Amex.
Brighton Thriving Under De Zerbi
Since Roberto De Zerbi has taken over, Brighton are averaging 1.98 xG per 90 minutes and in their last eight matches they have created 18 xG and 13 big scoring chances. Additionally, since De Zerbi took over on Oct. 1, Brighton have a +0.97 npxGD per 90 minutes, the third-best in the Premier League during that time span.
Brighton are one of the best build up teams in the Premier League and are rivaling teams like Chelsea and Arsenal with their ability to play out of the back.
image via The Analyst
They do such a good job of baiting the opposing team into pressing, which frees up a passing lane to one of the midfielders and then they play right through the middle of the pitch, pulling opposing defenses out of position.
Last weekend was a different kind of opponent for Brighton as Leeds that like to press high, although they didn’t fall for Brighton’s bait and played very structured and passive out of possession.
However, against one of the best low block teams in the Premier League two weeks ago, Brighton put four goals past West Ham and put up 3.5 xG in one of the most impressive offensive displays in the Premier League this season.
Crystal Palace Sputtering on Offensive End
Since the World Cup break, Crystal Palace have created just 8.9 xG in 12 matches. The last three matches it’s been particularly really bad, as they have failed to have one shot on target, haven’t scored and only created 1.1 xG against Liverpool, Aston Villa and Manchester City.
This is nothing new for Crystal Palace, who have been very poor in the final third, as Palace are only averaging 0.82 npxG per 90 minutes and have created just 14 big scoring chances – both of which are bottom-three in the Premier League.
Wilfred Zaha has returned from injury, which is good news for Crystal Palace. However, the bad news is that his 0.37 xG + xA per 90 minute rate is the highest on the team for a guys who have played over 10 90s.
The last time Crystal Palace faced Brighton, they lucked into Robert Sanchez dropping a cross, which allowed James Tomkins to tap home the equalizer on a shot that had an xG rating of 0.82. Outside of that, Crystal Palace took five shots and accumulated an xG of 0.17.
Palace have also been really bad on the defensive end this season, allowing 1.37 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 13th in the Premier League. The Eagles are also 13th in big scoring chances allowed, 17th in box entries allowed and 19th in xThreat allowed.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Pick
The last time Brighton faced Crystal Palace they were constantly threatening their penalty area, as Brighton had 15 box entries, 31 penalty box touches and an xThreat of 2.69.
If they put up numbers like that again, this one is going to be a rout. Crystal Palace have shown no offensive threat whatsoever in their last three matches and did nothing in the previous meeting against Brighton outside of the Sanchez dropped cross that led to their only decent chance.
I have Brighton projected at -290 and their spread at -1.73, so I love the value on the spread.
Pick: Brighton -1.5 (+140)
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