College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. Conference tournaments are in full swing, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
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Furman -3.5 (-122)
That’s because the Paladins boast the country’s 29th-best adjusted offense, per BartTorvik, and they should be able to score at will against the Mocs’ poor adjusted defense (245th). Furman is good-to-great in most advanced offensive metrics, ranking 13th in effective field goal percentage, 40th in turnover rate, and 87th in free throw rate.
That being said, Chattanooga is a respectable 112th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they live and die by the three, leading the nation in three-point attempts. This could be a dogfight if the Mocs are locked in from distance, and they’re 27th in three-point shooting percentage this season.
Still, outside of their prowess from beyond the arc, Chattanooga is the lesser team in almost every other category. According to both BartTorvik and KenPom, the Paladins are a top-100 squad, whereas the Mocs are well outside the top 150.
Furman won both regular season matchups, winning by 8 points on the road and rolling to a 21-point victory at home.
Under 155.5 (-110)
This clash between Southland foes has one of the higher over/unders of the night, and while both teams don’t play a lick of defense, there’s still value in siding with the under.
There’s no question that the biggest risk here is that the New Orleans Privateers and Southeastern Louisiana Lions pretty much let opposing offenses do whatever they want. Per BartTorvik, both teams rank outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and that includes each side also sitting outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage defense.
The other main danger is that these teams play at an above-average pace. New Orleans is 27th in adjusted tempo while Southeastern Louisiana is 115th.
So, why should we be intrigued by the under? Well, these teams may not do a whole lot on defense, but it’s not like they’re world-beaters offensively, either.
Southeastern Louisiana comes in at 202nd in adjusted offense, and New Orleans is an abysmal 298th. Perhaps most damning for the Privateers is that they’re 362nd out of 363 teams in turnover rate. For context, New Orleans turns the ball over at an average of 17.3 times per game.
These teams met twice in the regular season and went over this total in one of the two. However, in that game, both teams hit 11 threes and shot a combined 50.0% from beyond the arc, which isn’t something we should expect to happen very often.
Our model gives the under a 60.8% likelihood of occurring.
San Francisco +14.5 (-110)
The San Francisco Dons will have their work cut out for them against the Gonzaga Bulldogs, as Gonzaga is the nation’s top adjusted offense, per BartTorvik. But we should still like the Dons’ chances of keeping things competitive enough to stay within this lofty spread.
Although San Francisco is far from an elite offense, they’re a respectable 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which includes being 39th in effective field goal percentage and 58th in three-point shooting percentage.
Gonzaga isn’t a pushover defensively, but as the 100th-best adjusted defense, they aren’t exactly an impervious wall, either. Most notably, they’re just 271st in effective field goal percentage defense, so there’s definitely a path toward San Francisco putting up points in this one.
Unsurprisingly, the Bulldogs won both regular-season matchups. However, while they won comfortably at home by 18 points, they trailed nearly the entire game at San Francisco before ultimately eking out a 77-75 victory.
With this game at a neutral site, we should expect the final score to fall somewhere between those two results. numberFire’s model likes San Francisco and the points to hit 61.5% of the time.