Home » Fantasy basketball tips and betting picks for Monday

Fantasy basketball tips and betting picks for Monday

ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Monday, Feb. 27 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Monday’s games

We just witnessed another NBA weekend rife with amazing scoring performances, such as Damian Lillard‘s 71-point opus and Malik Monk‘s career-best 45 in an overtime epic, and dramatic comebacks in national games orchestrated by the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. And yet, on this Monday morning, fantasy managers should pay the most attention to a rookie center for the Charlotte Hornets.

The trade deadline finally cleared a runway for development for Mark Williams, the Hornets’ top pick out of Duke. Not only did Charlotte upset the Miami Heat on Saturday, but Williams set career highs in scoring (18) and boards (20) in just his sixth professional start.

Ahead of tonight’s schedule, we find Williams in free agency in 83% of ESPN leagues and priced at just $5,900 on DraftKings in an ideal matchup with a Detroit Pistons team allowing 55.7 fantasy points per game to opposing pivots.

It’s not often that we find such a light four-game slate on a Monday, so it’s important to recognize the scarcity of quality of streaming options and pursue them earlier in the day ahead of your competition. Names such as Williams, Josh Richardson (89% available), and Marvin Bagley III (88%) ring out ahead of Monday’s action.

— Jim McCormick

Breaking down Monday’s slate

Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina

Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 15-46 (28-32-1)
Hornets: 19-43 (27-33-2)

Line: Hornets (-6.5)
BPI Projection: Hornets (127-119.4)
Money Line: Pistons (+210), Hornets (-260)
BPI Projected winner: Hornets (73.4%)
Total: 236 points BPI Projected Total: 246.4 points

Injury Report:
Pistons: Bojan Bogdanovic, (GTD – Achilles); Isaiah Stewart, (GTD – Hip); Jaden Ivey, (OUT – Personal); Jalen Duren, (OUT – Ankle); Nerlens Noel, (OUT – Personal); Cade Cunningham, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Hornets: P.J. Washington, (GTD – Foot); Cody Martin, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: LaMelo Ball over 42.5 points + assists + rebounds. Ball has exceeded 42.5 PAR in each of the past three games. He faces a Pistons team on Monday that ranks 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Detroit also allows opponents an effective field goal percentage of 56.1%, the fifth highest in the league. This matchup sets the stage for Ball to have a monster game with triple double potential. — Eric Moody

Trend: Seeing the Hornets as favorites can be a jarring experience, but betting either side of this game is a tough sell. Instead, it’s worth noting that in 10 of 12 games when favored, Hornet games have come in under the total (and one of the overs cleared the number by just 2.5 points).– Kyle Soppe

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 32-29 (21-37-3)
76ers: 39-20 (33-25-1)

Line: 76ers (-6)
BPI Projection: 76ers (127-111.5)
Money Line: Heat (+205), 76ers (-250)
BPI Projected winner: 76ers (71%)
Total: 217 points BPI Projected Total: 230 points

Injury Report:
Heat: Kevin Love, (GTD – Knee); Tyler Herro, (GTD – Ribs); Kyle Lowry, (OUT – Knee); Nikola Jovic, (OUT – Back); Omer Yurtseven, (OUT – Ankle)
76ers: Dewayne Dedmon, (OUT – Hip)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kevin Love (available in 85.6% of leagues) has joined the Heat as a starter and is listed as probable to play on Monday. Love turned in a 13-point, 13-rebound double-double with 3 3-pointers, 2 assists and 1 block in 26 minutes on Saturday against the Hornets. -Snellings

Best bet: 76ers -6. The 76ers are not only one of the best teams in the league, but also one of the hottest. They just had their five-game winning streak snapped in a heartbreaking loss to the Celtics on Saturday, when Joel Embiid‘s 70-footer was deemed to have been taken a fraction of a second after the buzzer. The Heat, meanwhile, are struggling with injuries in the backcourt and have lost four straight and six of their last nine games. Playing at home, the 76ers should bounce back with a comfortable win on Monday. — Snellings

Trend: Might this Miami Heat team lack some of what has made them a strong bet in the past? They are just 3-5 ATS this season when catching at least five points, a dramatic swing from the 8-3 ATS mark they posted a season ago in such spots. When the Philadelphia 76ers are favored by at least five points this season, overs are 16-7.— Soppe

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, Manhattan, New York

Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 44-17 (33-27-1)
Knicks: 35-27 (34-27-1)

Line: Celtics (-2)
BPI Projection: Knicks (118.5-113.6)
Money Line: Celtics (-140), Knicks (+118)
BPI Projected winner: Knicks (66.4%)
Total: 223 points BPI Projected Total: 231.8 points

Injury Report:
Celtics: Derrick White, (GTD – Ankle); Jaylen Brown, (OUT – Personal); Danilo Gallinari, (OUT – Knee)
Knicks: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Sam Hauser (available in 98.8% of leagues) Hauser could be worth a look in deeper leagues with Jaylen Brown out on Monday. Hauser got extended run before the break with Brown out, averaging 15.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.4 3PG in 30.6 MPG over a five-game stretch. But it’s worth noting that Marcus Smart is back and available, so Hauser might not get as much run this time around. Still, he’s got streamer and DFS upside on Monday night in case he does get the call and show that he’s got the hot hand. — Snellings

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 13.5 total rebounds + assists. Tatum returned from the All-Star Break on a rebounding tear, grabbing 25 boards in two games. He’s been strong on the boards and dishing the rock extending back before the Break, with averages of 8.8 RPG and 5.9 APG in his last eight contests, going over 13.5 R+A in five of his last seven games. The last time he faced the Knicks, a month ago, he grabbed 14 boards with four assists. — Snellings

Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 33.5 points + assists + rebounds. Brunson was quiet last Friday while Julius Randle dominated the Wizards but don’t let that deter you because Brunson surpassed 33.5 PAR in the four previous games. His previous two games against the Celtics also exceeded 33.5 PAR. — Moody

Best bet: Marcus Smart over 17.5 points + assists. Smart looked more like himself last Thursday after being out with an ankle injury. He ended the game with 15 points, three assists, and five rebounds against the Pacers. The Knicks are a middle of the road team defensively and Smart should do well against them. — Moody

Trend: New York Knicks are playing some good basketball (five straight wins, three coming by at least 18 points), but the sportsbooks know that. They are adjusting for that. This season, the Boston Celtics are 12-3 ATS in coin flip games (contests that close with a spread of three or fewer points). The Knicks are 7-9 ATS in such spots when playing at home this season. — Kyle Soppe

Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana

Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 25-36 (33-26-2)
Pelicans: 30-31 (28-32-1)

Line: Pelicans (-4)
BPI Projection: Pelicans (118.4-114.5)
Money Line: Magic (+143), Pelicans (-170)
BPI Projected winner: Pelicans (64.1%)
Total: 227 points BPI Projected Total: 232.9 points

Injury Report:
Magic: Michael Carter-Williams, (GTD – Not Injury Related); Jonathan Isaac, (OUT – Hamstring)
Pelicans: Larry Nance Jr., (OUT – Ankle); Zion Williamson, (OUT – Hamstring); E.J. Liddell, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Josh Richardson (available in 89.0% of leagues) has averaged 12.4 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.3 RPG, 2.9 SPG, 1.6 3PG and 0.8 BPG in 29.1 MPG over his past eight games. He’s currently notched at least three combined steals and blocks in six straight games and is consistently producing solid volume across the board. — Snellings

Best bet: Brandon Ingram over 35.5 points + assists + rebounds. Ingram has averaged 28.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game over the past six games. He faces a Magic team on Monday night that gives up the second most points per game and the fourth most assists per game to small forwards with one of the highest turnover percentages in the league (15.3%). — Moody

Fantasy streamer: Mark Williams (rostered in 17.0% of ESPN leagues) has performed well for fantasy managers since entering the Hornets’ starting lineup. He has averaged 11.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks over the last six games. The Pistons rank 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Williams should continue to thrive at home against Detroit. — Moody

Best bet: Paolo Banchero over 2.5 turnovers. This is one bet at plus odds that I am drawn to like a moth to the flame. Banchero has been the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year Award most of the season, and for good reason. Recently, he has turned the ball over quite a bit. Banchero has had two or more turnovers in six consecutive games. The Pelicans are a stout defensive team ranking 10th in points allowed per 100 possessions. New Orleans also forces a high number of turnovers. — Moody