The Lakers get to wrangle an undisciplined team in the Jazz tonight, and our NBA picks think the home side will have no issues controlling tempo. Find out what that means for your best bet on Tuesday.
The Utah Jazz are reeling after back-to-back losses to the Phoenix Suns in heartbreaking fashion, and now the red-hot Los Angeles Lakers are up on Tuesday’s NBA odds docket.
L.A. has now won five of its last six and will look to improve to a strong 7-1 at home this season, but can it come away with a decisive victory on Tuesday?
Let’s dive right into it with our in-depth preview and free NBA picks for Jazz vs. Lakers on Tuesday, November 21.
Jazz vs Lakers odds
Jazz vs Lakers predictions
At this point, we know who the Los Angeles Lakers are as a team. They’re going to play slow and rely on their defense. They’re going to try to score inside without any semblance of a perimeter attack. The offense is going through Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
While those two guys are still on the injury report, with James coming into this one questionable, it’s a relatively safe assumption to say they’ll both play here. The Lakers have kept their big names on the injury report for years, and with the low severity of James’ injury, we’re not too worried he won’t suit up here.
With that, I think the Lakers are in an excellent spot at home on Tuesday, where they’re 6-1 on the year. Laying the points is quite scary, though, given they’re just 2-5 against the spread in these games — and have been favored in all seven.
That’s why I’m landing on the Under here. We know that when the Lakers are able to control the game, the pace will be incredibly slow, and they should certainly be able to do so against a team ranked 20th in defense at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass. Davis and James should take up plenty of time here for a team ranked inside the Top 10 in halfcourt play frequency, and on the other side of the coin, the Lakers’ perimeter defense should do the job on a Utah Jazz team that loves to shoot from deep.
Without many possessions, I find it tough to see these teams combining to hit the Over, and I disagree wholeheartedly with the oddsmakers’ total.
My best bet: Under 238.5 (-110 at DraftKings) 25% boost available
Jazz vs Lakers same-game parlay
Anthony Davis 20+ points
Anthony Davis 2+ blocks
Jordan Clarkson 2+ threes
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Furthering my point about the Under here, the Jazz are the second-best rebounding team in the NBA and should put the hurt on a Lakers team that has ranked just 19th in that regard in the early going of the season. That really scares me off of any sort of Davis prop involving rebounds, even in a player-combo prop, and I’ll side with some more creative legs of this parlay as a result.
As noted above, the Lakers love to play in the halfcourt and should be particularly fond of getting the ball down to Davis here in what’s an excellent matchup for the big man. Still, in what could be a low-scoring game, I’ll opt for an alternate line on Davis hitting 20 points, which he’s done in seven of his 13 games.
The reason I’m willing to drink the juice on that leg is because I also want to back Davis to dominate inside on the defensive end. While the Jazz don’t particularly love taking the ball inside, a bad matchup hasn’t stopped Davis from swatting shots inside in the past, considering he’s gone for two or more blocks in all but three games this year.
I mentioned that the Lakers have a solid perimeter defense — and I do think it’ll do enough to limit what’s been an explosive Jazz team from the outside. With that, though, the Lakers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to 3-point defense this year and that should open the door for Jordan Clarkson to knock down a couple from outside.
Clarkson has been in a bit of shooting slump over the last six games, but he’s still taking around six shots per game from deep on average. We’ve seen him be particularly active when the Jazz are down in the second half, so I think the game script should fit this prop as well.
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Jazz vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
It hasn’t been very fun to lay points with the Lakers this season, considering they’re just 3-7 ATS as favorites this year, but they’ve found a way to win — particularly at home. I think the matchup here is going to be too much for the Jazz to overcome; their defense has been very weak, which should allow L.A. to look better than usual on the offensive end, and while this defense may not rate incredibly well at the moment it’s begun to climb the ranks in the last week or so and could rank Top 10 in the next 7-10 days.
So, I think if you’re looking for a side along with a play on the total, I’m firmly of the belief this should be a game where the Lakers win and hit the Under — something we’ve already seen countless times in just a month or so of games.
This game isn’t a very heavily wagered one, which has thrown the splits a bit awry. DraftKings has taken in 43% of the tickets on the Under while 97% of the handle is on the Over. This isn’t scaring me totally off that side, given it is likely just a few big plays from big bettors on the Over, but it’s worth noting nonetheless. Just 38% of the bets are on the Lakers to cover with 42% of the handle on the home team, and if you’re looking for a lean, it would be toward the Lakers.
Jazz vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Under is 7-3 this year when the Lakers are favored. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Lakers.
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Jazz vs Lakers game info
|Location:||Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA|
|Date:||Tuesday, November 21, 2023|
|Tip-off:||10:00 p.m. ET|
Jazz vs Lakers latest injuries
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