The Atlanta Falcons (5-6) will try to stay atop the NFC South standings when they face the New York Jets (4-7) on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta snapped a three-game losing streak with a 24-15 win over the Saints, moving ahead of New Orleans via the tiebreaker. New York has lost four consecutive games, falling to Miami in a 34-13 final last week. The Jets are four games back of Miami in the AFC East standings.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. The Falcons are favored by 2 points in the latest Jets vs. Falcons odds, while the over/under is 33.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Falcons vs. Jets picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 22-8 straight-up the last two weeks.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Jets vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -2
- Jets vs. Falcons over/under: 33.5 points
- Jets vs. Falcons money line: Falcons -133, Jets +113
- Jets vs. Falcons picks: See picks here
Why the Jets can cover
New York needs to make a stand if it wants to keep its slim playoff chances alive. The Jets are hoping veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes a late comeback after his Achillies injury in the season opener, but his return wouldn’t mean much if the team is already out of the playoff hunt. They have a solid defense, ranked in the top 15 in total yards allowed per game (323.5).
Their rushing attack has potential as well, with running back Breece Hall rushing for 569 yards and two touchdowns this season. He is averaging nearly five yards per carry, so the Jets can control the tempo with their ground game and defense. Atlanta has only covered the spread twice in its last 10 games, and it is winless against the spread in its last seven games against AFC teams.
Why the Falcons can cover
Atlanta might have a losing record heading into Week 13, but it is still tied with New Orleans for first place in the NFC South following its win over the Saints last week. The Falcons took control in the fourth quarter when quarterback Desmond Ridder threw a touchdown pass to Bijan Robinson. They rushed for 228 yards, as Robinson shared carries with Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson and Ridder.
Ridder has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards and seven touchdowns this season, going over 200 yards on five occasions. The Jets gave veteran quarterback Tim Boyle his first start of the season last week, but he got sacked seven times and threw two interceptions in a 34-13 loss to Miami. The Falcons have won four of the last five meetings between these teams, and New York is winless against the spread in its last five games. See which team to pick here.
How to make Jets vs. Falcons picks
The model has simulated Falcons vs. Jets 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Jets vs. Falcons, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Jets spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 175-126 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.