Home » NBA Betting Guide for Friday 3/3/23: Taking the Points With Some Underdogs

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 3/3/23: Taking the Points With Some Underdogs

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte Hornets +4.0 (-110)

The Hornets are entering this game as 4.0-point home underdogs to the Orlando Magic without LaMelo Ball. PJ Washington is doubtful, as well, for Charlotte.

For Orlando, they’re more or less full go.

Despite the injury advantage belonging to the Magic, it’s not a foregone conclusion that they win and cover.

Charlotte — with Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and Kelly Oubre active but with Ball, Washington, and Cody Martin on the sidelines — has a wildly high +12.1 net rating over 422 possessions. A bit of that is defensive shooting luck — but it’s not like the Magic are a dominant team.

I have their relevant net rating for this game at just -2.2 based on injuries and leverage.

As a result, my model likes the Hornets to cover at home. numberFire’s model has the Hornets +4.0 as a three-unit recommendation.

Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks

Portland Trail Blazers +7.0 (-110)

Once again, injuries impact the underdog more than the favorite in this game. The Atlanta Hawks are good to go. The Trail Blazers remain without Jusuf Nurkic and also list Anfernee Simons as doubtful.

But in games with Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant active and with those two off the floor, the Blazers own a +8.2 net rating on the back of an unsustainably high 129.0 offensive rating over a rather robust sample of 829 non-garbage-time possessions. That’s pretty incredible.

Atlanta is pretty average overall (+2.3 relevant net rating), so I’m again taking the points in this game.

numberFire’s model likes Portland +7.0 as a two-star play.

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics Team Total Over 119.5 (-110)
Over 227.5 (-110)

The Brooklyn Nets are winless in four games since the All-Star break and have averaged only 109.0 points per game in that span (the league average since the break is 114.0 per game). However, they’ve allowed 130.0 points per game for a total of 239.0 per contest in their four post-break matchups.

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are 3-1 with an impressive 122.3 opponent-adjusted offensive rating since the return. The main problem for them right now is pace, yet the Nets are playing some uptempo basketball, which should boost their offensive output tonight.

There’s blowout risk, and that seems like the biggest potential inhibitor of a game over.

I still see value in it, but I’m more than fine going with the Celtics’ team total over at 119.5.