The 2023 NFL regular season is moving at a rapid pace as Week 11 concludes on Monday night with a Super Bowl 57 rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
While we still await my Eagles’ +3 pick this evening, it was another successful week against the spread (ATS). After a brutally slow start, I went 4-1 on Sunday and am now 17-6 on my ATS and bonus bet predictions since Week 8.
Here’s my record so far as we wrap up Week 11 this evening:
2023 record: 32-33-1
Against the spread: 26-28-1
Bonus Bets: 6-5
With an action packed Thanksgiving slate this Thursday followed by the first ever Black Friday NFL game, there’s a ton of betting options for an expanded NFL weekend. Here’s my six teams wager on against the spread for Week 12, plus one total to bet on:
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Washington Commanders
As I learned last week, it’s not always a great decision to take a big division favorite at home as the Giants’ proved me wrong in their big upset win over the Commanders.
However, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet against Washington now in this spot.
The Commanders defense has taken the obvious steps back since trading cornerstones Chase Young and Montez Sweat prior to the trade deadline on Oct. 31. They’ve given up at least 29 points in three of their last four games with the lone exception being the Patriots who are one of, if not the worst offense in the NFL.
While Washington could be in store for a bounce back performance, I don’t see it now on a short week facing a vaunted Cowboys’ defense and an offense that is second in the NFL in points per game (30.2 PPG) and averaging 40 points in home games season.
Most sportsbooks have this line at -11 but if you’re deciding on betting with the Cowboys, do it now on PointsBet and FanDuel Sportsbook with the odds currently at -110 (Bet $110 to win $100).
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
After QB Will Levis shined in his NFL debut in Week 8, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Titans. They’ve gone 0-3 since and have only scored 36 points in that span.
It might seem like an unwise decision to lay points with the Titans but I’d do so here.
They welcome in the Panthers who have lost nine of 10 games this season after their recent 33-10 beatdown from the hands of the Cowboys in Week 10.
Not only has Carolina failed to get in the win column multiple times, but it is a league worst 1-7-2 ATS and haven’t covered in any of its five road games.
Listen, I’ll admit betting on a Titans’ offense that averages 16.8 PPG isn’t the safest of bets. However, I’m comfortable laying this number against the league’s worst team so far this season.
There’s multiple different sportsbooks that have the Titans with a price of -110 for this AFC South matchup.
New York Giants (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots
Listen, I was flat out wrong against the Giants’ last weekend.
Now back home against the aforementioned woeful Patriots offense they’re 3.5-point underdogs? That doesn’t seem right to me.
New England is coming off of its bye week after playing in Frankfurt, Germany in Week 9 but a week off won’t fix this offense that has scored more than 20 points just once this entire season.
Neither of these teams are great against the spread so getting the “hook” with G-Men as home underdogs is a must bet.
I’ll have a deeper dive on this matchup later in the week but right now I’d pay the price of -115 (Bet $115 to win $100) to get the Giants at +3.5 points on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills bounced back with a huge 32-6 victory over the Jets this past Sunday in Orchard Park.
While we have yet to see how the Eagles perform against the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs, I’d lay the points here with Philly.
Buffalo might have defeated a lackluster Jets’ squad at home but they’ll face the complete opposite on the road in City of Brotherly Love. We also can’t forget their recent stretch where they lost three of four games and have suffered multiple injuries to impactful players on defense in Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White, DaQuon Jones and former first-round pick Kaiir Elam.
The Bills are only 4-7 ATS this season and have failed to cover in three of four road games.
Even though I’d bet the Eagles now at this number, I’d wait until after tonight’s game if Philadelphia underperforms this spread could drop to -2.5 which I would jump on right away.
Currently, the best price to wager on the Eagles as a field goal favorite is -117 on BetRivers.
Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
As I stated last week, I was all for betting on the Packers as home underdogs against a suspect Chargers’ team and it proved to work out.
This week, I’d bet on them.
Similar to the Titans’ pick, it seems like a risky proposition. However, the Ravens’ are traveling across the country without their top playmaker in tight end Mark Andrews who will likely be out for the rest of the season after suffering a cracked fibula and ankle injury last Thursday night.
Getting a team in the Chargers who can keep up offensively especially versus a wounded Ravens’ offense is too good of an opportunity to pass up.
DraftKings Sportsbook is the only betting site that still has the line at +4.5 with a price of -110.
Bonus Bet: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints UNDER 42.5 points (-110)
The betting definition of the 2023 season has been to wager on the under and there might be no better matchup than this one in Week 12.
The Falcons and Saints each average fewer than 22 points per game this year and both rank in the top half of the league in hitting the under this season.
In a division game that features two underwhelming offenses, I’d wager on the under in this one as we see 42 or fewer points scored here.
There’s a handful of different sportsbooks offering a price of -110 for this line of 42.5 points.