The Spurs have been bleeding on defense, and missing some key bodies against a Mavericks offense that now has two nuclear scorers, our NBA picks are predicting plenty of fireworks in the Lone Star State tonight.
The Mavericks may be on a slide, but they should have no issues getting through a porous Spurs defense.
San Antonio has lost an impressive 14 games in a row, and it certainly doesn’t seem as if that streak will be ending on Thursday night as it takes on a revamped Dallas team.
The Mavericks are looking forward to the start of the second half considering they entered the All-Star break on a three-game slide.
Let’s break down how this one should go in our Spurs vs. Mavericks NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, February 23.
Spurs vs Mavericks best odds
Spurs vs Mavericks picks and predictions
The Spurs are not only on a horrible run at the moment, they’re also walking with a limp. Tre Jones is doubtful to play on Thursday, Jeremy Sochan is questionable, and the likes of Isaiah Roby, Romeo Langford, and Devin Vassell remain out.
With Jones off the floor this year, the Spurs have lost by 2.1 more points per 100 possessions. Without Langford, they’ve been 2.8 points worse per 100 possessions. Without Sochan? 2.3 points wore per 100 possessions.
The combination of all three missing the game should absolutely prove to be catastrophic. While the team has struggled to score without them on the court, the noticeable difference has surely been on defense.
As if it can’t get any worse, the Spurs have a -12.6 net rating in their road games this season, which is five points worse than their mark at home.
So, this looks like a horrible spot to be a big believer in the Spurs. They’re clearly focused on Victor Wembanyama and not beating a Mavericks team that should prove to be stronger now that Kyrie Irving has arrived in town.
The Over has cashed in two of San Antonio’s last four games and is 16-11-2 when this team is on the road. Dallas is 3-1 to the Over in the last four. I don’t see any way the Spurs can stop Dallas without their best players, and while they haven’t been able to score much at all this season, the splits tell us that the offense shouldn’t really budge, rather the defense will relent. With that, I think the best bet here is on a high-scoring game.
My best bet: Over 238.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Spurs vs Mavericks spread analysis
The spread here is a whopping 14 points, which is where the betting opened up. Given what I covered about how poor of a spot this is for the Spurs, I don’t think many people are flocking to take the underdogs. With that said, laying 14 points with a team on a losing streak isn’t exactly the most fun proposition.
That’s why many have passed on this, and why the splits are rather even. DraftKings is reporting 58% of the tickets and 64% of the money is on the Mavericks, and I’d be inclined to lean that way as well. While Dallas is still without Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans, it still has plenty of shooting around those two and has looked a lot stronger on offense with Irving in the fold now.
The Mavericks are 12-26-2 against the spread as favorites this season and 9-17-3 ATS at home, which makes me all the more confident in avoiding this spread. On the flip side, the Spurs are 16-11-2 as road underdogs but have covered just once in their last 13 games — and that was when they were spotted 16 points.
Spurs vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis
We talked plenty about the Over before this, but allow me to briefly cover how this line has been behaving. The total first opened at 235.5 and has moved up three full points with some books even hanging 239.5 at the moment.
According to DraftKings, 49% of the tickets are on the Over and a stronger 53% of the money is on the Over as well. It seems 238.5 could be the stopping point for bettors, but I’d probably take this all the way to 240.5.
The Spurs have been awful on defense over the last 15 games, with 120.7 points allowed per 100 possessions, and should continue hurting with so many players missing. With that said, they’re sixth in pace over the last 15, which should be a deadly combination for Under bettors. Any time you have a team that plays this quickly to make up for its bad defense, you’ve got a recipe for the Over.
Spurs vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Mavericks have failed to cover in each of the last seven games they’ve been favored. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Mavericks.
Spurs vs Mavericks game info
|Location:||American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX|
|Date:||Thursday, February 23, 2023|
|Tip-off:||8:30 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Bally Sports SW-DAL, KENS|