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Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Week 13
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A legacy franchise from each conference – coincidentally they met way back in Super Bowl I – meet for only the 15th time in their storied histories at Lambeau Field for a key early December inter-conference clash.
The Chiefs look to build on a 31-17 road win over the Raiders in Week 13 that pushed Kansas City’s record to 8-3 to maintain a two-game lead over the red-hot Denver Broncos in the AFC West.
The Packers moved to within a game of .500 with their second straight victory and third in the last four games, an impressive 29-22 victory on the road over the division-rival Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Green Bay remains very much a long shot to catch the Lions for the NFC North crown, but the Packers are very much in the mix for a wild-card spot.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Betting Odds for NFL Week 13
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs -240 (PointsBet Sportsbook) / Packers +220 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Chiefs -6 (DraftKings Sportsbook) / Packers +6 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 42.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook) / Under 42.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Packers have unsurprisingly been underdogs throughout this game’s history at the sportsbook, which dates back to June when the lines were first released. Green Bay was carrying a +5.5 line at the time, and prior to Week 12 action, that number had risen all the way to +7 with the Pack sitting at 4-6.
Green Bay’s Thanksgiving win did seem to move the needle some with the public, which began betting the number down until it returned to that original 5.5 number mid-week this week. However, as of Friday night, it’s inched back up another half-point.
The total has seen some upward movement but is still undeniably on the low side when considering some of the offensive players on either side in this matchup. The number sat at 41 points before Week 12 action and got bet up as high as 43 in the immediate aftermath of Week 12 results before coming down a half-point over the course of the week.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Betting Picks This Week
The Chiefs are always going to have a certain degree of offensive potency as long as Patrick Mahomes is upright, but KC is going about things a bit differently this year as it goes through a transitional period of sorts in its receiving corps.
Now nearly two years removed from last having seen Tyreek Hill suit up in their uniform, the Chiefs appear to be in the process of developing a new alpha receiver in the form of rookie second-round pick Rashee Rice, who just recorded his first 100-yard game against the Raiders in Week 12 and now sports a 44-527-5 line through 11 games.
Rice’s developing profile in the offense complements the elite pass-catching exploits of Travis Kelce and serves as a much-needed alternative to the perennial All-Pro tight end for Mahomes. Second-year back Isiah Pacheco often does the equivalent on the ground, where the Rutgers product has churned out 865 total yards and six total scores in 11 games.
The contributions of both players could certainly be critical to KC’s eventual success Sunday night. Green Bay has been a strong pass defense by the numbers from a season-long perspective, but the Pack is allowing 229 passing yards per game in the last three games after going into the stretch surrendering 196.1 per contest. Moreover, the Pack has only picked off five passes, and while they’ve done an admirable job applying pressure (37% pressure rate per Pro Football Focus), they’ve only gotten home for sacks at a middling 14% rate.
Meanwhile, Green Bay is yielding the seventh-most rushing yards (1,155) and nine rushing TDs to running backs while also allowing an average of five receptions per contest to the position. That should give Pacheco, who’s running behind an offensive line facilitating an above-average 1.37 yards per carry before first contact, consistent opportunities for productive runs and to also continue building on his expanded pass-catching role this season (30-196 line through the air).
On the other side, Jordan Love‘s stretch of hot play will get quite the litmus test. The Chiefs defense, long overshadowed by their teammates on the offensive side of the ball, have made themselves increasingly difficult to overlook while allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game (296) and racking up 37 sacks. KC is also tied for the fourth-most fumble recoveries (eight), and while Love hasn’t lost any of his six fumbles, that luck could well run out Sunday night.
Green Bay will also be without Aaron Jones (knee) for Sunday’s game, lowering the chances of the Pack’s ground attack keeping the Chiefs defense honest and off Love. Ultimately, what should be a favorable home-field environment should help keep the Packers competitive for a good chunk of this game, but the Chiefs’ superior talent and what should be a more diversified attack will help them pull away just enough late in a game that should feature a bit more offense than projected.
Chiefs at Packers Best Bets Same-Game Parlay: Chiefs moneyline and Over 42.5 points (+160 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Prediction
Chiefs 27, Packers 20
As noted, the Chiefs aren’t quite the offensive powerhouse of years past, but somewhat under the radar, Pacheco and the team’s standout defense has been helping KC to success in a slightly different manner than prior years. Both should come to bear in this matchup, which I see as remaining very close until the fourth quarter. Ultimately, I think Pacheco helps keep the chains moving and the defense does enough to trip up Love to allow Mahomes and co. to escape the storied venue with a victory.